I have discovered ‘Google Scholar’!
Yes, of course, I knew about it, but I never used it much. In particular, I did not know it has a huge page just on me. So I had a good look at it (who would be able to resist?) and found many things of interest – for instance, the fact that (as of yesterday) my papers have been cited a total of 86 759 times, and that 4 of them have been cited more that a thousand times.
Here they are:
|Interactions between herbal medicines and prescribed drugs AA Izzo, E Ernst
Drugs 61 (15), 2163-2175
|Fibrinogen as a cardiovascular risk factor: a meta-analysis and review of the literature
E Ernst, KL Resch
Annals of internal medicine 118 (12), 956-963
|Influence of context effects on health outcomes: a systematic review
Z Di Blasi, E Harkness, E Ernst, A Georgiou, J Kleijnen
The Lancet 357 (9258), 757-762
|The prevalence of complementary/alternative medicine in cancer: a systematic review
Cancer: Interdisciplinary International Journal of the American Cancer …
Two things are perhaps noteworthy here, I feel:
- Only 2 of the 4 papers are on research in so-called alternative medicine (SCAM).
- In the 4th paper, they forgot to add Barrie Cassileth who was its co-author.
Scanning my own articles, the real revelation was how much I owe to others, how many co-workers I have had, how many of them I had completely forgotten about, and how many have already gone forever.
So, allow me to take this opportunity to honour those who have passed away (in the order they appear on the page).
- ARPAD MATRAI was a brilliant scientist, Olympic swimmer for Hungary, and close friend. He came to London in 1980 to work in my lab. After I had left, I attracted him to Munich where we had several hugely productive years together – until he died of leukaemia in 1988.
- JOHN DORMANDY see here.
- VERONIKA FIALKA was my senior registrar in Vienna and became a good friend. After I had left Vienna, she took over my position as head of the department. We then somehow lost contact and, one day, I received the sad news of her early death.
- NASSIM KANJI was my PhD student at Exeter. She did very well, and we published several papers on autogenic training together.
- PETER FISHER see here.
- GEORGE LEWITH see here.
- CHRIS SILAGY was a brilliant GP and researcher. We did not have much contact except for one paper we had together.
- JOHN GARROW see here.
- ANDREW HERXHEIMER see here.
- WALLACE SAMPSON was a famous and brilliant US sceptic. We had various contacts and shared one paper.
- P T FLUTE was head of haematology at St George’s Hospital, London while I worked there. I remember him as kind and supportive.
I owe more gratitude to these (and all my other) co-authors than I will ever be able to express.
When tested rigorously, the evidence for so-called alternatives medicine (SCAM) is usually weak or even negative. This fact has prompted many SCAM enthusiasts to become utterly disenchanted with rigorous tests such as the randomised clinical trial (RCT). They seem to think that, if the RCT fails to generate the findings we want, let’s use different methodologies instead. In other words, they are in favour of observational studies which often yield positive results.
This line of thinking is prevalent in all forms of SCAM, but probably nowhere more so that in the realm of homeopathy. Homeopaths see that rigorous RCTs tend not to confirm their belief and, to avoid cognitive dissonance, they focus on observational studies which are much more likely to confirm their belief.
In this context, it is worth mentioning a recent article where well-known homeopathy enthusiasts have addressed the issue of observational studies. Here is their abstract:
Background: Randomized placebo-controlled trials are considered to be the gold standard in clinical research and have the highest importance in the hierarchical system of evidence-based medicine. However, from the viewpoint of decision makers, due to lower external validity, practical results of efficacy research are often not in line with the huge investments made over decades.
Method: We conducted a narrative review. With a special focus on homeopathy, we give an overview on cohort, comparative cohort, case-control and cross-sectional study designs and explain guidelines and tools that help to improve the quality of observational studies, such as the STROBE Statement, RECORD, GRACE and ENCePP Guide.
Results: Within the conventional medical research field, two types of arguments have been employed in favor of observational studies. First, observational studies allow for a more generalizable and robust estimation of effects in clinical practice, and if cohorts are large enough, there is no over-estimation of effect sizes, as is often feared. We argue that observational research is needed to balance the current over-emphasis on internal validity at the expense of external validity. Thus, observational research can be considered an important research tool to describe “real-world” care settings and can assist with the design and inform the results of randomised controlled trails.
Conclusions: We present recommendations for designing, conducting and reporting observational studies in homeopathy and provide recommendations to complement the STROBE Statement for homeopathic observational studies.
In their paper, the authors state this:
It is important to realize three areas where observational research can be valuable. For one, as already mentioned, it can be valuable as a preparatory type of research for designing good randomized studies. Second, it can be valuable as a stand-alone type of research, where pragmatic or ethical reasons stand against conducting a randomized study. Additionally, it can be valuable as the only adequate method where choices are involved: for instance, in any type of lifestyle research or where patients have very strong preferences, such as in homeopathy and other CAM. This might also lead to a diversification of research efforts and a broader, more realistic, picture of the effects of therapeutic interventions.
My comments to this are as follows:
- Observational research can be valuable as a preparatory type of research for designing good randomized studies. This purpose is better fulfilled by pilot studies (which are often abused in SCAM).
- Observational research can be valuable as a stand-alone type of research, where pragmatic or ethical reasons stand against conducting a randomized study. Such situations rarely arise in the realm of SCAM.
- Observational research can be valuable as the only adequate method where choices are involved: for instance, in any type of lifestyle research or where patients have very strong preferences, such as in homeopathy and other CAM. I fail to see that this is true.
- Observational research leads to a diversification of research efforts and a broader, more realistic, picture of the effects of therapeutic interventions. The main aim of research into the effectiveness of SCAM should be, in my view, to determine whether the treatment per se works or not. Observational studies are likely to obscure the truth on this issue.
Don’t get me wrong, I am not saying that observational studies are useless; quite to the contrary, they can provide very important information. But what I am trying to express is this:
- We should not allow double standards in medical research. The standards and issues of observational research as they exist in conventional medicine must also apply to SCAM.
- Observational studies cannot easily determine cause and effect between the therapy and the outcome.
- Observational studies cannot be a substitute for RCTs.
- Depending on their exact design, observational studies measure the outcome caused by a whole range of factors, including the therapy per se, the placebo-effect, the natural history of the disease, the regression towards the mean.
- Observational studies are particularly useful in effectiveness research, AFTER the efficacy of a therapy has been established by RCTs.
- If RCT fail to show that a therapy is effective and observational studies seem to indicate that they work, the therapy in question is probably a placebo.
- SCAM-enthusiasts’ preference for observational studies is transparently due to motivated reasoning.
The objective of this study was to identify adverse drug reactions (ADR) associated with the use of so-called alternative medicine (SCAM) in Malaysia and to define factors which are associated with the more serious reactions. For this purpose, all ADR associated with the use of SCAM products (including health supplements) submitted to the Malaysian Centre for ADR Monitoring, National Pharmaceutical Regulatory Agency over a 15-year period were reviewed and analysed. Multivariate logistic regression analysis was performed to identify predictors of serious ADR.
From a total of 74 997 reports in the database, 930 (1.2%) involved SCAM products. From a total of 930 reports, 242 (26%) were serious ADR with 36 deaths. Six people died as a result of taking the SCAM, while another 30 cases were possibly associated with the SCAM products. Among the 36 mortality cases, adulterants were detected in 30% of cases. Examples of adulterants were dexamethasone, avanafil, nortadalafil and banned drugs such as phenylbutazone and sibutramine
About a third of the reports involved used SCAM products for health maintenance. Most (78.1%) of the ADR reports implicated unregistered products with 16.7% confirmed to contain adulterants which were mainly dexamethasone. Of the 930 reports, the ADR involved skin and appendages disorders (18.4%) followed by liver and biliary system disorders (13.7%). The odds of someone experiencing serious ADR increased if the SCAM products were used for chronic illnesses (odds ratio [OR] 1.99, confidence interval [CI] 1.46-2.71), having concurrent diseases (OR 1.51, CI 1.04-2.19) and taking concurrent drugs (OR 1.44, CI 1.03-2.02).
The authors concluded that the prevalence of serious ADR associated with SCAM products is high. Factors identified with serious ADR included ethnicity, SCAM users with pre-existing diseases, use of SCAM for chronic illnesses and concomitant use of SCAM products with other drugs. The findings could be useful for planning strategies to institute measures to ensure safe use of SCAM products.
The authors also point out that underreporting of ADRs remains a major ongoing issue in pharmacovigilance. Many SCAM consumers may not be vigilant or may be unaware of ADR they experience due to misconceptions on the
safety of SCAM products. Most doctors rarely ask their patients about the use of SCAM.
To this, I would add that SCAM providers do their utmost to give the impression that their products are natural and therefore safe. Furthermore the press is far too often perpetuating the myth, and the regulators tend to turn a blind eye.
I expect that some readers of this post will now point out that the rate of SCAM-related ADRs is very small compared to that of conventional drugs. They would be correct, of course. But they would also miss the point that the value of a treatment is not determined by its risk alone. It is determined by the risk/benefit balance. Where there is no effectiveness, this balance is negative, even if the risk is tiny.
So, now let me challenge the defenders of SCAM to name a few SCAMs that are demonstrably associated with a positive risk/benefit balance.
During the last few months, I have done little else on this blog than trying to expose misinformation about COVID-19 in the realm of so-called alternative medicine (SCAM). However, the usefulness and accuracy of most viewed YouTube videos on COVID-19 have so far not been investigated. Canadian researchers have just published a very nice paper that fills this gap.
They performed a YouTube search on 21 March 2020 using keywords ‘coronavirus’ and ‘COVID-19’, and the top 75 viewed videos from each search were analysed. Videos that were duplicates, non-English, non-audio and non-visual, exceeding 1 hour in duration, live and unrelated to COVID-19 were excluded. Two reviewers coded the source, content and characteristics of included videos. The primary outcome was usability and reliability of videos, analysed using the novel COVID-19 Specific Score (CSS), modified DISCERN (mDISCERN) and modified JAMA (mJAMA) scores.
Of 150 videos screened, 69 (46%) were included, totalling 257 804 146 views. Nineteen (27.5%) videos contained non-factual information, totalling 62 042 609 views. Government and professional videos contained only factual information and had higher CSS than consumer videos (mean difference (MD) 2.21, 95% CI 0.10 to 4.32, p=0.037); mDISCERN scores than consumer videos (MD 2.46, 95% CI 0.50 to 4.42, p=0.008), internet news videos (MD 2.20, 95% CI 0.19 to 4.21, p=0.027) and entertainment news videos (MD 2.57, 95% CI 0.66 to 4.49, p=0.004); and mJAMA scores than entertainment news videos (MD 1.21, 95% CI 0.07 to 2.36, p=0.033) and consumer videos (MD 1.27, 95% CI 0.10 to 2.44, p=0.028). However, they only accounted for 11% of videos and 10% of views.
The authors concluded that over one-quarter of the most viewed YouTube videos on COVID-19 contained misleading information, reaching millions of viewers worldwide. As the current COVID-19 pandemic worsens, public health agencies must better use YouTube to deliver timely and accurate information and to minimise the spread of misinformation. This may play a significant role in successfully managing the COVID-19 pandemic.
I think this is an important contribution to our knowledge about the misinformation that currently bombards the public. It explains not only the proliferation of conspiracy theories related to the pandemic, but also the plethora of useless SCAM options that are being touted endangering the public.
The authors point out that the videos included statements consisting of conspiracy theories, non-factual information, inappropriate recommendations inconsistent with current official government and health agency guidelines and discriminating statements. This is particularly alarming, when considering the immense viewership of these videos. Evidently, while the power of social media lies in the sheer volume and diversity of information being generated and spread, it has significant potential for harm. The proliferation and spread of misinformation can exacerbate racism and fear and result in unconstructive and dangerous behaviour, such as toilet paper hoarding and mask stealing behaviours seen so far in the COVID-19 pandemic. Consequently, this misinformation impedes the delivery of accurate pandemic-related information, thus hindering efforts by public health officials and healthcare professionals to fight the pandemic.
I suggest to critically evaluate the statements of some UK and US politicians next.
Dr. Dhanunjaya Lakkireddy, a cardiologist at the Kansas City Heart Rhythm Institute in the US, has started a trial of prayer for corona-virus infection. The study will involve 1000 patients with COVID-19 infections severe enough to require intensive care. The four-month study will investigate “the role of remote intercessory multi-denominational prayer on clinical outcomes in COVID-19 patients,” according to a description provided to the National Institutes of Health.
- Male or female greater than 18 years of age
- Confirmed positive for COVID-19
- Patient admitted to Intensive Care Unit
- Patients admitted to ICU for diagnosis that is not COVID-19 positive
(Not giving informed consent is not listed as an exclusion criterion!)
Half of the patients, randomly chosen, will receive a “universal” prayer offered in five denominational forms, via:
The other 500 patients in the control group will not be prayed for by the prayer group. All the patients will receive the standard care prescribed by their medical providers. “We all believe in science, and we also believe in faith,” Lakkireddy claims. “If there is a supernatural power, which a lot of us believe, would that power of prayer and divine intervention change the outcomes in a concerted fashion? That was our question.”
The outcome measures in the trial are
- the time patients remain on ventilators,
- the number of patients who suffer from organ failure,
- the time patients have to stay in intensive care,
- the mortality rate.
On this blog, we have seen many other ‘corona-quacks’ come forward with their weird ideas. I ask myself why we give them not the opportunity to test their concepts as well? Why do we not spend our resources testing:
- ultraviolet blood irradiation,
- dietary supplements of all kinds,
- essential oils,
- cow dung and urine,
- dozens of herbal remedies,
- colloidal silver?
In my recent book, I included a short review of the literature on prayer as a medical intervention. This is what I wrote:
- Prayer can be defined as the solemn request or thanksgiving to God or other object of worship.
- Intercessory prayer is practised by people of all faiths and involves a person or group setting aside time for petitioning god on behalf of another person who is in need. Intercessory prayer is organised, regular, and committed. Those who practise it usually do not ask for payments because they hold a committed belief.
- The mechanisms by which prayer might work therapeutically are unknown, and hypotheses about its mode of action will depend to a large extent on the religious beliefs in question. People who believe in the possibility that prayers might improve their health assume that god could intervene on their behalf by blessing them with healing energy.
- These assumptions lack scientific plausibility.
- Numerous clinical trials have been conducted. Most of them fail to adequately control for bias, and their findings are not uniform.
- A systematic review of all these studies is available. It included 10 trials with a total of 7646 patients. The authors concluded that the findings are equivocal and, although some of the results of individual studies suggest a positive effect of intercessory prayer, the majority do not and the evidence does not support a recommendation either in favour or against the use of intercessory prayer. We are not convinced that further trials of this intervention should be undertaken and would prefer to see any resources available for such a trial used to investigate other questions in health care.
Lakkireddy says he has no idea what he will find. “But it’s not like we’re putting anyone at risk,” he says. “A miracle could happen. There’s always hope, right?”
Personally, I have a pretty good idea what he will find. I also find Lakkireddy not all that honest and think his assumptions are deeply mistaken:
- Lakkireddy cites an extensive list of references; however, the Cochrane review (usually the most reliable and independent source of evidence) that arrived to the conclusions I quoted above, he somehow ‘forgot’ to mention.
- As the review-authors tried to indicate, further trials of prayer are a waste of resources.
- There are many much more promising interventions to be tested, and by conducting this study, he is diverting research funds that are badly needed elsewhere.
- The study seems to have several ethical problems, e.g. informed consent.
- Contrary to Lakkireddy’s belief, he will harm in more than one way; apart from wasting resources, his study undermines rational thought and public trust in clinical research.
PERSONALLY, I FIND THIS PROJECT DESPICABLE!
Guest post by Christian Lehmann
It’s the end of February. We see the first death, in the Oise department, near Paris, of a French citizen who has not recently travelled abroad. For doctors concerned about what is happening in China, this is the red alert. In spite of of the little notices posted by the health minister, Agnes Buzyn, at airports, the coronavirus has made it onto French soil. Nobody knows at that point how it will spread. Almost nobody, apart from those responsible for it, yet knows that France has completely run down its stocks of masks. Doctors themselves do know that the health service has only held out, for as long as it has, on the backs of its care personnel. Some are assessing the scale of what is to come.
The announcement by Didier Raoult about the spectacular effectiveness of a synthetic antimalarial, chloroquine, has brought enormous relief, followed immediately for many of us health professionals by growing doubts about an accumulation of errors: Raoult denies any toxicity, urges people to “fall upon” a medication requiring sensitive handling. When we locate the Chinese article on which Didier Raoult is basing his crisis communication, we are stupefied. No need for specialised knowledge in statistical methodology to understand that there is something seriously wrong. No numerical data. Nobody knows what dosage has been given, to what type of patient, nor how many have been treated. The article has not been “peer reviewed”, that is to say reviewed by professional equals; decoded, it has the effect of a simple announcement. So of course at this chaotic time we tell ourselves that, given a revelation of such importance, the Chinese wanted to act as quickly as possible, to inform the whole world. And Didier Raoult, who routinely advises, as he explains with delicious modesty, the Chinese, « the world’s best virologists », has probably been entitled to the first fruits of this revelation.
On Youtube, on 28 February, he posts a weird interview, “Why would the Chinese be mistaken?”, in which he repeatedly takes up his interviewer with obvious irritation. “No, that’s not the question that you should be asking me. You should be asking me….” An informal group of doctors and tweeters pass around the link. We are rubbing our eyes in disbelief. What Didier Raoult is passing off as an interview is nothing more then an audience accorded to one of his media aides. We advise him, sarcastically, to make a professional cut of the video before broadcasting it. An hour later the video disappears and returns in a more professional form which could create the illusion of a genuine interview. And rapidly, in the Press which is beginning to turn its microphones towards the Professor from Marseille, he modifies his stance, without ever acknowledging the radical changes.
Chloroquine, spectacular and miraculous only yesterday, disappears as if by magic, replaced from one day to the next by hydroxychloroquine (Plaquenil), a different medicine, less common. Though its chemical structure is close to that of the antimalarial medication, hydroxychloroquine is used primarily in rheumatic conditions such as rheumatoid polyarthritis, or immune conditions such as lupus. So at least it isn’t lying around in large quantities in medicine cabinets. And its cardiac toxicity, very real, is slightly lower then that of chloroquine. Didier Raoult puts forward HCQ as an immense discovery, continuing in his usual manner to ridicule his detractors. “The doctors who criticise me are neither in my field nor up to my weight”. He flays the inaction of embittered petty health officials, only fit to follow the diktats of the authorities, who, bogged down in their catastrophic crisis management, dare not intervene. And his posturing as a refractory Gaul, a loudmouth taking on the system, gains sympathy, from those to whom he gives hope, from those who understand that the State does not tell them everything, and from those looking for a hero to fit in with their stereotypes: the man on his own against the establishment, the White Knight taking on Big Pharma, the Hippocratic colossus besieged by hordes of soulless ants.
No one among those who hold out their microphones to him, not one asks him the question which we are all asking, GPs, cardiologists, pharmaceutical specialists, emergency specialists, resuscitation specialists – by what sleight of hand has Didier Raoult exchanged his miracle medicine, in 48 hours, openly and publicly? And how is it that no one has noticed the sleight-of-hand? Has this man who makes such a big deal of his image on social networks suddenly become aware of the risk of being confronted about chloroquine with a justifiable public outcry and with deaths by self-medication?
While the World Health Organisation is sounding alarm bells, in the context of overall mistrust with regard to scientific opinion, of confrontation with regard to government, of growing awareness ( belated and sometimes disproportionate) of the influence of Big Pharma, and as the initial fear gives way to real panic for some with the registration of each new case, Didier Raoult piles up Facebook likes, fans, sites to his glory. And for us, fearful, begins the long registration of flagrant mistruths delivered as revealed truths, which this professor will never have the honestly to set right.
For Didier Raoult, a minimum of intellectual integrity would demand that he admits having changed horses in midstream. That he admits that the concern of his despised detractors was well founded, with respect to chloroquine to which many have access without knowing its dangers ( Nivaquine is very often used in suicides). And, because Didier Raoult withdraws nothing, he continues to stash away all the profits of his media coverage. Every supporter of the Wise Man of Marseille piles in with testimony. Their brother, sister, uncle, the father-in-law of their hairdresser has been taking the Professor’s medicine ( Which one? ) for eight years in Africa and has never had a problem, so that’s the real proof that his detractors are just jealous, or, even worse, backed by “the lobbies”.
And untiringly we repeat the fundamental truths:
- Yes chloroquine has existed for years
- Yes it is widely used
- But for a different treatment, the prevention of malaria
- And in dosages 5 to 10 times smaller
- And in large dosages it causes cardiac arrest
- And it has never been effective in fighting a virus
- Not this virus nor any other
- And the same is true for hydroxychloroquine
- In fact it’s rather the opposite
In fact what is being patiently stated by the upholders of the scientific method is very counter-intuitive, almost inaudible, because they are telling worried and disorientated people, who have put their trust and their hope in one man, that in his assertions………nothing makes sense.
Am I the only one who suspects that China is using the current pandemic for promoting Traditional Chinese Medicine? I see many signs for that being so. To me, this seems not better than pushing homeopathy for that purpose. The fact is, I fear, that there is no robust evidence that TCM works for corona or any other viral infection. In case you think I am wrong, please show me the studies.
Anyway, in this context, it seems relevant to ask to what extend TCM has been used so far in the battle against the current pandemic. I came across this website which gives us some clues. I have no idea how reliable the data are, so perhaps one needs to take them with a pinch of salt. Here they are (% figures depict the usage of TCM):
US – 1%
Europe – 2%
Italy – 3%
Spain – 2%
UK – 0%
France – 6%
Germany – o%
China – 67%
Korea/Taiwan/Japan – 10%
Rest of the world – 3%
And what do these figures tell us?
Probably not a lot!
But they are nevertheless interesting, I think, in that they suggest that China’s promotion of TCM has had some moderate successes at least in some countries; notably France and Asian regions seem to have succumbed to the Chinese sales techniques to some degree . Remarkable, in my view, is also the German’s absolute resistance to use TCM. Considering that Germany has an enviably low death rate, this fact seems to somewhat dispel the notion that TCM offers an effective way out of the current health crisis.
I know Dr Thompson personally since many years. She is one of the UK’s leading homeopaths and we rarely agreed on anything. Yet I had always considered her to be on the responsible side of the homeopathic spectrum. I am sorry to say that I just changed my mind.
The reason is this video and letter.
In the video, she explains that she has been infected with the coronavirus, has self-treated the condition with homeopathy and promptly recovered. In the letter to all patients, she states the following:
… In terms of Homeopathic Medicines, the medicine Anas Barb 200c, two tablets twice weekly, can be used during this time, increasing to two tablets once a day if you do have exposure to the virus or have symptoms and have to self-isolate.
Other Homeopathic Medicines that are being recommended include:
- Arsenicum Album 30c: three times daily if anxiety is strong
- Gelsemium 30c: twice daily if weakness and headache predominate
- Bryonia 30c: two-three times a day for dry cough particularly if movement aggravates the cough.
If cough becomes more problematic you can use Antimonium Tartaricum 30c three times daily.
If fevers are a problem and particularly if they are periodic (coming at certain times of the day) use China officinalis 30c three times daily…
I find this amazing and alarming. There is, of course, not a jot of evidence that any homeopathic treatment will effectively treat or prevent any viral infection, and certainly no evidence that it cures coronavirus infections. To claim or imply otherwise displays a staggering ineptitude and lack of professionalism. To extrapolate from a personal experience to a quasi recommendation for patients is, in my view, ridiculously unscientific and overtly unethical. As a doctor Thompson should be able to differentiate between experience and evidence and has the professional duty to go by the latter.
I am truly glad to hear that Dr Thompson has had a mild course of the disease and recovered swiftly. But we know that all too often this is not the case and that patients can become seriously ill and some even die of the coronavirus. To give the impression that homeopathy can keep them safe is clearly both incorrect and irresponsible.
As THE TIMES stated yesterday, homeopaths are ‘risking lives with bogus coronavirus treatments’.
It’s high time to stop them.
It is hard to believe that the largest professional organisation of UK homeopaths, the ‘British Homeopathic Association’ (BHA), can be so irresponsible as to publish this on their website under the title ‘Coronavirus – advice from the UK homeopathic Community‘:
Can homeopathy help?
Homeopathic medicines have been used extensively for flu-like symptoms and in epidemics around the world. If you decide to take a homeopathic medicine, this should be in addition to the various measures outlined above and should not be your only approach. Selection of the most appropriate homeopathic medicine is based on an individual’s unique symptoms. However, Gelsemium 30c and Bryonia 30c are commonly used for flu-like symptoms and have a long-established, traditional usage over many years.
Homeopathic options can form one part of your approach to the current Covid-19 outbreak but should always be used alongside other measures. If you have current symptoms or are concerned that you may have been exposed to coronavirus, it is important to call 111 to seek appropriate advice, in keeping with current guidelines.
You start to feel internally very cold and suddenly pretty unwell – Aconite 30c
You have flu with stomach upset, your body is hot but you feel cold; you are better being warm and are
mentally restless and anxious – Arsen alb 30c
You have a raging hot temperature, a red face and a cold body – Belladonna 30c
Everything aches, especially when you move and you want to be left alone in bed with the curtains drawn –
You are ‘wiped out’, have no energy, droopy eyelids and are feeling shivers up and down your spine –
With the flu you have great sensitivity to noise and touch, are worse for the slightest uncovering: it is as if you
have a hangover – Nux vomica 30c
You have aching and restlessness, are better moving around, yet worse on continued exertion and much worse
in the cold and damp, much better for heat – Rhus tox 30c
In later stages of the illness, the medicine may change, for example:
Your head feels congested when you are up and about but is better lying down – Natrum carb 30c
Your sinuses are blocked and painful – Hepar sulph 30c
You feel very low and the slightest thing can provoke tears – Pulsatilla 30c
This is, in my view, not just stupid, it is dangerous, unethical, reckless and in no way compatible with the responsibility of a professional organisation of a healthcare profession.
Sorry, but this post is unrelated to so-called alternative medicine (SCAM), the usual topic of this blog
The deaths caused by the corona-virus differ from country to country. Germany’s fatalities have been widely acknowledged to be unusually low, while those of the UK seem worryingly high. On 9 April, Germany had just over 2600 deaths and about 118000 cases of infection. In the UK, these figures were around 8000 and 57000 (these data are from here).
This translates to hugely different rates of death per active case. But, as the Germans test many more people than the UK, this difference in rates can easily be explained. The more tests one does, the more likely it is that new cases will be identified. This obviously results in higher total case numbers. In turn, the proportion of fatal cases will be smaller.
But what about the absolute numbers of deaths?
What might they tell us?
Assuming that medical care is similarly competent in both countries (and knowing that a causal therapy does not exist), should there not be a lower fatality figure (proportional to the number of cases) in the UK compared to Germany? To me, it does not make sense that the opposite is true: in the UK, we have a total of 8000 fatalities, while Germany has 2600. Similarly, on 9 April [to just pick one day at random] there were 881 deaths in the UK and 337 in Germany.
Should it not be the other way round?
I know these figures are far from precise (and I am here only interested in estimates and trends), but the difference is clear enough and the trend has been consistent.
If that is so, what is the reason?
The only explanation that I can think of is that the UK numbers of active cases are wrong, – not just slightly wrong, but very profoundly wrong.
As the UK did not test extensively, we know the UK case numbers are an underestimate. Some say they are higher by a factor of two or three.
Most people seem to think that the German case figures – because of the German programme of adequate testing – might be about right. Assuming that UK doctors are as good at saving the lives of corona patients as their German colleagues, and assuming that everything else is roughly equal, one might extrapolate from the UK fatality numbers the level of infection in the UK.
If 2600 death in Germany correspond to 118000 cases, 8000 deaths in the UK should, according to this logic, correspond to about 363000 cases. This is roughly 6 times the number I see in the official statistics!
I know this is a very simplistic calculation, but is it fundamentally wrong?
If not, should we not get some explanations or transparent data from our government?
I am truly puzzled.
Can someone PLEASE enlighten me?