I was fascinated and horrified in equal measure to watch Donald Trump speaking at the CPAC talking about a medical topic – autism to be precise. Here are his words (minus the gibberish he always adds to disguise the stupidity of his phrases):
…15 years ago, there was one case per 10 000, some say 20 000 US citizens. Now the figure is 1 in 36. There’s something wrong. Bobby (Robert F. Kennedy Jr.) is gonna find it, working with Dr. Oz; by the way, working with Dr. Oz…
The audience of conservatives cheered blissfully!
What Trump said at the CPAC was not original. He uttered almost identical nonsense before (except he also claims the rate is now 1 in 34); it seems to be one of his set pieces for amusing the intellactually challenged.
A few days ago Trump signed an executive order (EO) calling for the creation of a ‘Make America Healthy Again’ Commission, which the White House says will be “tasked with investigating and addressing the root causes of America’s escalating health crisis.” In the EO, the figures are, however, a little different: “Autism spectrum disorder now affects 1 in 36 children in the United States — a staggering increase from rates of 1 to 4 out of 10,000 children identified with the condition during the 1980s.”
- 15 years ago was not the 1980s;
- 1 in 10 000 is not the same as 1 to 4 out of 10,000 children.
But, as we are often told, we must not take Trump literally; it’s the ‘BIG PICTURE’ that counts!
A little research reveals that the 1 in 36 prevalence figure originates from this survey. It was not focussed on autism but on autism spectrum disorder (ASD).
- Autism is a specific disorder within the broader category of ASD.
- ASD refers to a range of conditions that share some commonalities.
- Autism has distinct characteristics and symptoms.
- ASD includes conditions like autism, Asperger’s syndrome, childhood disintegrative disorder, and an unspecified form of pervasive developmental disorder.
Is it really too difficult for Trump to differentiate between autism and ASD?
Or is the reason that this would not fit his agenda?
The survey concluded that “findings from the ADDM Network 2020 surveillance year indicate higher ASD prevalence than previous estimates from the ADDM Network and continuing evidence of a marked shift in the demographic composition of children identified with ASD compared with previous years. Although earlier ADDM Network reports have shown higher prevalence among higher-SES White children compared with other groups, the latest data indicate consistently higher prevalence among Black and Hispanic children compared with White children, and no consistent association between ASD and SES. Furthermore, this is the first ADDM Network report in which the prevalence of ASD among girls has exceeded 1%. Since 2000, the prevalence of ASD has increased steadily among all groups, but during 2018–2020, the increases were greater for Black and Hispanic children than for White children. These data indicate that ASD is common across all groups of children and underscore the considerable need for equitable and accessible screening, services, and supports for all children.”
The authors of the survey caution that the findings in their report are subject to at least seven limitations.
- First, the methods rely on the availability, quality, and completeness of existing information and records to ascertain ASD cases and other indicators. Although all sites had access to special education classification data, certain sites did not have access to education records for their entire population, limiting the ability to identify children with ASD exclusively identified and served through their schools. Sites requested records from public school special education programs but did not review private school education records. Incomplete information could lead to misclassifying children’s cognitive ability, overestimating the age when they were first evaluated or when ASD was diagnosed, or failing to ascertain that the children were identified as having ASD. Sex information reflects what is represented in children’s records and might not reflect their gender identity.
- Second, the case definition for intellectual disability was measured using a child’s latest cognitive test or examiner statement of a child’s cognitive ability. Diagnostic and special education eligibility criteria for intellectual disability requires concurrent adaptive functioning deficits. IQ scores are not necessarily stable measures of intellectual ability over time, can increase among children with ASD in response to intensive early therapeutic interventions, and might be unstable during early childhood. The age at which children had their most recent test or examiner impression of cognitive ability varied by site.
- Third, the ADDM Network sites are not intended to be representative of the states in which the sites are located. ADDM Network sites are selected through an objective and competitive process, and findings do not necessarily generalize to all children aged 8 years in the United States. Interpretations of temporal trends can be complicated by changing surveillance areas, case definitions, data source access, and diagnostic practices.
- Fourth, small numbers result in imprecise estimates for certain sites and subgroups, and estimates falling below the selected threshold for statistical precision were suppressed.
- Fifth, the surveillance data system does not collect the number of ASD ICD codes a child received at a specific source, limiting comparability to analyses of claims/billing databases that consider number of ICD codes received.
- Sixth, the COVID–19 pandemic resulted in reduced access to records from some sources at certain sites; it was often possible to electronically obtain some data elements from these sources but not manually review the full contents of records. Disruptions in services and school closures during 2020 might have resulted in less documentation of ASD in records, which could decrease ASD ascertainment by ADDM sites.
- Seventh, the prevalence of undetected ASD in each community as well as false-positive ASD diagnoses and classifications are unknown.
So, Trump charged Robert F. Kennnedy Jr. to investigate why ASD is on the increase. As it happens, Kennedy already knows the conclusion of this investigation. He has often stated widely debunked claims that autism is caused by vaccinations. For instance, in a 2023 interview with Fox News, he squarely claimed that “autism comes from vaccines”. This theory was popularised by the discredited ex-doctor Andrew Wakefield based on a fraudulent paper that was later retracted by the Lancet. Multiple studies have subsequently demonstrated that there is no link between vaccines and autism.
Luckily Kennedy has Dr. Oz – yes the very Dr. Oz who has featured many times on my blog (see for instance here, here and here) – to help him get to the bottom of what Trump believes to be a mystery. Those two will be quite an unbeatable team (neither of them has ever done proper research in this area; Oz promotes any quackery that fills his pockets, and Kennedy would not recognise reliable science, if it bit him in his behind)! Perhaps they could start their investigation by reading the many papers that have already found at least some of the plausible reasons for the above-cited figures, e.g:
- The Real Reasons Autism Rates Are Up in the U.S. | Scientific American
- Is Autism Really Increasing?
- Factors Causing an Increase in Autism | Psych Central
- Autism: Cases on the Rise; Reason for Increase a Mystery
- Recognising autism in healthcare – PubMed
Oh, I almost forgot: they don’t need to read such demanding papers. They already have the answer to the autism mystery!
PS
19 Responses to Have the morons have taken over US healthcare?
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They have taken over the US period.
And things will be getting much, much worse still. Even from the above it is already abundantly clear that Trump and his Chosen Few have no truck with truth or reality – these things are now completely subordinate to what is going on in the sick minds of Trump, Kennedy, Musk and others.
– Actual scientists and researchers are being censored, indiscriminately fired, banned from traveling or even visiting congresses online, and told that they can no longer do their work unless they fully comply with Trump’s ‘anti-woke’ agenda (read: stop using a hundred or so completely common terms in their papers and communications).
– A small group of Trump-friendly doctors are creating an alternative ‘scientific’ ecosystem based on misinformation, lies and politicized propaganda (among which antivaccine propaganda), complete with its own ‘journal’, for the sole purpose of further bolstering the extremely politicized insanity that is going on.
– On the other hand, agencies that keep track of what is really going on in terms of public health are gutted and demolished, so the quality of information about healthcare and public health will quickly deteriorate in the near future.
In short, Trump and his Chosen Few are busy creating a kind of dark, Orwellian mirror version of reality, where ‘truth’ is whatever they say, and anyone who dares contradict them is quickly silenced and/or fired. And even if public health suffers immense damage from what is happening, with large numbers of people getting hurt or even dying as a result, that information will no longer become available. Trump and his Chosen Few will simply declare that they’re doing a Great Job, and that is the Ultimate Truth.
Well, as I always like to say (when in impish mood): “We never heard about children with ADHD when we sent them down the mines and up the chimneys”………
I heard they will be changing the name of HHS to Ministry of Wellness or MinWell in newspeak and I will soon be starting a blog named Tales from the Dystopia.
The conspiracy theories of Richard Rasker are quite extream. How are the Pharamceutical markets reacting to Trump and JFK?
I doubt if BigPharma are too concerned.
Moderna shares have dropped of course over the last few years due to much lower Covid vaccine demand . Shares though up 16% in the last 5 days.
Pfizer shares have been steady this year.
BioNTech have also been steady this year.
Richard really needs to advise BigPharma that his pending Orwellian doomsday scenario is nigh!
You are babbling nonsense, @JK, because you have no idea about anything. It is your normal state.
@JK
Big Industry (including Big Pharma) and in particular Big Money were initially quite happy with the Trump/Musk demolition team.
After all, they are the ones who will benefit from Trump’s 4 trillion dollar tax cut. Getting the money for this tax cut is also one reason why the richest man on earth is now depriving millions of the poorest people on earth from life-saving medicines and food aid, by destroying USAID (even though that saves only ~60 billion, or just 1.5% of the proposed tax cut). Hey, someone’s gotta pay for this tax present for the richest 1% – so why not the poor? After all, they’re not important.
Also, the deregulation taking place is good for profits. Big Industry can save billions of dollars by no longer being bound to consumer and environmental laws. Big Pharma (and Big Supplement, for that matter) can profit by having to deal with far less stringent safety regulations. After all, caring for the environment and for food and medicine safety were just leftist woke hobbies that only cost money.
However, stock markets are still beginning to get nervous for several reasons. The first reason is that in all his endless stupidity, Trump is still threatening half the world with tariffs, and if he pushes through with those plans, this will tank the US economy.
Then there is a fast growing backlash from current mass firings, already starting to impact local economies all over the country. When you put countless thousands of people out of a job from one day to the next, those people have less money to spend. Also, threats of cuts into programs such as Medicare and Medicaid have made people at the receiving end wary to spend money – they fear that very soon, their medical expenses will explode, when federal benefits are reduced or stopped altogether. Hey, someone’s gotta pay for this tax present for the richest 1% – so why not sick people? After all, they’re not important.
And last but not least: stock markets don’t like disruption and uncertainty. They like things to go as usual. With Trump and Musk destroying US democracy and the rule of law and justice, betraying their old allies and trade partners, and getting cozy with fascist dictators such as Putin, the near future is growing more uncertain by the day. This is not good for stock prices.
Thanks Richard. At least you can put forward an argument unlike some others who can’t address points.
There once was a fellow named JK,
Who had quite a peculiar way.
A homeopath by trade,
With theories homemade,
He’d shake vials night and day.
He’d mix up his potions with care,
Claiming cures for all who’d dare.
But when skeptics would scoff,
He’d just laugh and brush off,
“You’re the ones with the wild ideas, I swear!”
He’d rant about pills and vaccines,
Claiming they’re all just big pharma schemes.
But if you dared to suggest,
A theory, he’d protest,
“That’s nonsense! You’re spreading conspiracy theories!”
So here’s to our chap, dear JK,
With his shaken-water remedies that lead us astray.
A master of doubt,
He’ll always call out,
“Conspiracies? I am not the one spreading them!”
@Talker:
You are William McGonagall and I claim my £5.
I will take that as a compliment, Mojo
😊
Reminds me of Germany about 90 years ago. When the Nazis came to power, “Deutsche Physik” was able to flourish for a short time. However, the supporters of German Physics quickly lost influence again because they were unable to demonstrate any usefulness or research successes.
… and many German physicists fled Germany for obvious reasons, e.g. Born, Einstein
Yes, correct.
This may sound cynical or rather pragmatic, but Christian Stöcker writes in a column in Der Spiegel that Germany should use the opportunity to recruit US researchers.
https://archive.is/BIRIQ
The President of the Max Planck Society sounds a similar note.
https://archive.is/70646
@RPGNo1
It would indeed be ironic in the extreme if Europe managed to snatch up the actual brains of America because Americans elected someone with no brains at all as their president.
I suspect that similar considerations occurred in the UK and US when top scientists were trying to escape Germany in the 1930s.
German (and Austrian) medicine, for instance, suffered very badly because of this in the long-term.
@Edzard Ernst
I recently read a book by Tillmann Bendikowski.
Hitlerwetter: Das ganz normale Leben in der Diktatur: Die Deutschen und das Dritte Reich 1938/39 (literally Hitler Weather: Normal Life in the Dictatorship: The Germans and the Third Reich 1938/39)
In one chapter, the author describes very clearly the damage caused in the German Reich by the forced dismissal and expulsion of thousands of highly experienced Jewish doctors. Numerous wounded soldiers also suffered the consequences during the Second World War because they were treated by inexperienced doctors who also showed great lack of knowledge because the medical studies took place in trimesters.
If Robert Kennedy Jr. and his shaman helpers (like Dr. Oz), who have taken over the main health authorities, get away with their obscure and dangerous alternative medical ideas, then the USA could face a similar fate, namely that many doctors will look for work abroad, where their experience is still valued.
@RPGNo1
That makes total sense for EU countries to recruit US researchers. I am thinking of moving out of US but Germany gives me pause due to rise of AfD after the recent elections.
I have to admit that in this case, I already had the answer to the question in the title before I even read the blog post 😉
Not bad st all Talker but you ran out of steam with the 5th lines for the last 2 verses.
Since when have I ranted about vaccines being a BigPharma scheme?
I don’t trade as a homeopath in this universe.
Di you sometimes live in a parallel one?