Please allow me to deviate today from my usual agenda, i.e. so-called alternative medicine. I feel that I should write about the contribution of war to global warming which, in turn, will inevitably affect our health as individuals and our chances of survival as humans. 2025 was the third-warmest year on record; the global average temperature over the past three years has now surpassed 1.5 ℃ above pre-industrial levels — an increase that nations pledged in the 2015 Paris Agreement to prevent.
Recent research from organizations like the “Conflict and Environment Observatory” and “Scientists for Global Responsibility” has pioneered methodologies to quantify the effects of war on climate. The climate impact of war can be devided into three distinct categories:
1. Impact of Direct Military Operations
High-intensity combat involves massive amounts of jet fuel, diesel, and marine fuel. For example, a single F-35 fighter jet consumes roughly 5,600 liters of fuel per flight hour. In addition, supply chain emissions, i.e. producing weapons, ammunition, and moving supplies need to be considered. They account for the largest share of a military’s carbon footprint. Many countries do not disclose these data, making global calculations difficult.
2. Impact of Collateral Environmental Damage
Wars cause immediate, unintended releases of greenhouse gases through the destruction of carbon-storing infrastructure and landscapes. Shelling often causes massive fires in forests, wetlands, and industrial sites. For instance, in the first two years of the war in Ukraine, wildfires caused by combat accounted for roughly 21% of the total conflict-related emissions. Strikes on oil refineries, gas pipelines, and power plants release methane and CO2 into the atmosphere. When airspace is closed due to conflict, civilian flights must take longer routes, burning significantly more fuel.
3. Impact of Post-War Reconstruction
The most significant long-term climate cost of war might be the carbon required to rebuild what was destroyed. Rebuilding cities requires vast quantities of cement and steel, two of the most carbon-polluting industries globally. Moving and processing millions of tonnes of rubble requires thousands of truck journeys and heavy machinery, all of which emit CO2.
These three types of impact add up and are huge: The total military activity is estimated at 5.5% of global emissions. In other words, if the world’s militaries were a country, they would be the 4th largest emitter, ranking after China, USA, and India.
So, cconventional wars warm the planet.
What about nuclear warfare?
Even worse, I’m afraid – but in the opposite direction!
Experts calculate that a large-scale nuclear war would cause so much soot and smoke. In turn, this would block the sunlight and thus lead to a “Nuclear Winter”. Global temperatures could then decrease by about 10 degrees Celsius or more in a matter of weeks. This effect would be profound and would quickly lead to mass starvation.
As so often, the conclusion is ‘disarmingly’ obvious:
STOP ALL WARS!
Obvious, yes.
Realistic?
No!
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