Lower respiratory tract infections (LRTIs) in early childhood are known to influence lung development and lifelong lung health, but their link to premature adult death from respiratory disease is unclear. This analysis aimed to estimate the association between early childhood LRTI and the risk and burden of premature adult mortality from respiratory disease.
This longitudinal observational cohort study used data collected prospectively by the Medical Research Council National Survey of Health and Development in a nationally representative cohort recruited at birth in March 1946, in England, Scotland, and Wales. It evaluated the association between LRTI during early childhood (age <2 years) and death from respiratory disease from age 26 through 73 years. Early childhood LRTI occurrence was reported by parents or guardians. Cause and date of death were obtained from the National Health Service Central Register. Hazard ratios (HRs) and population attributable risk associated with early childhood LRTI were estimated using competing risks Cox proportional hazards models, adjusted for childhood socioeconomic position, childhood home overcrowding, birthweight, sex, and smoking at age 20–25 years. The researchers compared mortality within the cohort studied with national mortality patterns and estimated corresponding excess deaths occurring nationally during the study period.
5362 participants were enrolled in March, 1946, and 4032 (75%) continued participating in the study at age 20–25 years. 443 participants with incomplete data on early childhood (368 [9%] of 4032), smoking (57 [1%]), or mortality (18 [<1%]) were excluded. 3589 participants aged 26 years (1840 [51%] male and 1749 [49%] female) were included in the survival analyses from 1972 onwards. The maximum follow-up time was 47·9 years. Among 3589 participants, 913 (25%) who had an LRTI during early childhood were at greater risk of dying from respiratory disease by age 73 years than those with no LRTI during early childhood (HR 1·93, 95% CI 1·10–3·37; p=0·021), after adjustment for childhood socioeconomic position, childhood home overcrowding, birthweight, sex, and adult smoking. This finding corresponded to a population attributable risk of 20·4% (95% CI 3·8–29·8) and 179 188 (95% CI 33 806–261 519) excess deaths across England and Wales between 1972 and 2019.
The authors concluded that, in this perspective, life-spanning, nationally representative cohort study, LRTI during early childhood was associated with almost a two times increased risk of premature adult death from respiratory disease, and accounted for one-fifth of these deaths.
What has that got to do with so-called alternative medicine?
Nothing!
Yet, I feel that this study is so remarkable that I need to report on it nonetheless.
What do the findings indicate?
I am not sure. Perhaps they confirm that our genetic makeup is hugely important in determining our health. Thus even the earliest signs of weakness can provide an indication of what might happen in later life.
Whatever the meaning, I find this study fascinating and hope you agree.
9 Responses to Lower respiratory tract infections during early childhood are associated with doubling the risk of premature adult death from respiratory disease
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A paper with high case numbers, solid statistical analyses and a discussion that includes confounding factors – this must be quite confusing for all the SCAM supporters reading your blog
indeed
Thanx for posting this interesting study. I think that it IS important to evaluate long-term implications of getting (or not getting) specific diseases earlier in life.
For instance, in this study, it seems that there are cardioprotective benefits from getting the real mumps and/or measles in childhood in comparison with not getting these diseases as a result of getting a vaccine against them.
https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/26122188/
Kubota Y, Iso H, Tamakoshi A; JACC Study Group. Association of measles and mumps with cardiovascular disease: The Japan Collaborative Cohort (JACC) study. Atherosclerosis. 2015 Aug;241(2):682-6. doi: 10.1016/j.atherosclerosis.2015.06.026. Epub 2015 Jun 18. PMID: 26122188.
In this context, preventing certain childhood illnesses may lead to earlier deaths from other diseases.
In any case, we need more research into these deeper (and longer-term) health questions.
@Dana
If a parent brings their kid suffering from mumps or measles to you for “treatment”. Would you “treat” that kid or send them a link to this paper and collect your fee?
Fascinating paper that can be twisted to help support the views of pro-pestilence brigade. No wonder why you jumped at the chance.
@Dana Ullman
Where do you read that the people who did not get infected were vaccinated? I see no mention of vaccination, only of people who did get measles and mumps versus people who didn’t. Then again, I have no access to the full article, so maybe vaccines are mentioned in the full text,
Also note that vaccination against measles does in fact constitute the actual viral infection, as the vaccine contains live but attenuated measles viruses. This infection just isn’t as virulent as a full-blown measles infection, but it might have the same effect on the risk of future cardiovascular events.
Mr Ullman, previously on this Blog you asserted that “only fools or liars” doubted that homeopathic water could be distinguished from other water.
Please either name a laboratory that can do it, or withdraw your assertion.
Fifty-eighth time of asking.
@Dan “In this context, preventing certain childhood illnesses may lead to earlier deaths from other diseases.”
This is rubbish- 100 yrs ago only measles caused the death in 3% of the birth cohort.
Vaccinations contributed very much to increasing life expectancy.
And your cited paper made no correction for those who died with measles, because those cold not enter the study due to early death.
@Dan
Riekmann A et al Int J Epidemiol.
Vaccinations against smallpox and Tuberkulosis are associated with better long- term survival: a Danish case cohort study 1971-2020.
Smallpox was eradicated in 1980- no one will be a victim of smallpox in the future. And Tuberculosis was so much reduced, that immunisation with BCG was no longer necessary in developed countries.
And there were (are) Doctors saying that natural immunity (ie get infected and survive) is the way to go for Covid 19.