Sorry, but this post is unrelated to so-called alternative medicine (SCAM), the usual topic of this blog
The deaths caused by the corona-virus differ from country to country. Germany’s fatalities have been widely acknowledged to be unusually low, while those of the UK seem worryingly high. On 9 April, Germany had just over 2600 deaths and about 118000 cases of infection. In the UK, these figures were around 8000 and 57000 (these data are from here).
This translates to hugely different rates of death per active case. But, as the Germans test many more people than the UK, this difference in rates can easily be explained. The more tests one does, the more likely it is that new cases will be identified. This obviously results in higher total case numbers. In turn, the proportion of fatal cases will be smaller.
But what about the absolute numbers of deaths?
What might they tell us?
Assuming that medical care is similarly competent in both countries (and knowing that a causal therapy does not exist), should there not be a lower fatality figure (proportional to the number of cases) in the UK compared to Germany? To me, it does not make sense that the opposite is true: in the UK, we have a total of 8000 fatalities, while Germany has 2600. Similarly, on 9 April [to just pick one day at random] there were 881 deaths in the UK and 337 in Germany.
Should it not be the other way round?
I know these figures are far from precise (and I am here only interested in estimates and trends), but the difference is clear enough and the trend has been consistent.
If that is so, what is the reason?
The only explanation that I can think of is that the UK numbers of active cases are wrong, – not just slightly wrong, but very profoundly wrong.
As the UK did not test extensively, we know the UK case numbers are an underestimate. Some say they are higher by a factor of two or three.
Most people seem to think that the German case figures – because of the German programme of adequate testing – might be about right. Assuming that UK doctors are as good at saving the lives of corona patients as their German colleagues, and assuming that everything else is roughly equal, one might extrapolate from the UK fatality numbers the level of infection in the UK.
If 2600 death in Germany correspond to 118000 cases, 8000 deaths in the UK should, according to this logic, correspond to about 363000 cases. This is roughly 6 times the number I see in the official statistics!
I know this is a very simplistic calculation, but is it fundamentally wrong?
If not, should we not get some explanations or transparent data from our government?
I am truly puzzled.
Can someone PLEASE enlighten me?