Many fans of so-called alternative medicine have, as discussed ad nauseam on this blog, an irrational attitude towards vaccinations. They frequently claim that they do more harm than good. I wonder whether the data from a very large study might convince them other wise.

The WHO launched the ‘Expanded Programme on Immunization’ (EPI) in 1974 to make life-saving vaccines available to all globally. To mark the 50-year anniversary of EPI, this analysis sought to quantify the public health impact of vaccination globally since the programme’s inception.

his modelling study used a suite of mathematical and statistical models to estimate the global and regional public health impact of 50 years of vaccination against 14 pathogens in EPI. For the modelled pathogens, we considered coverage of all routine and supplementary vaccines delivered since 1974 and estimated the mortality and morbidity averted for each age cohort relative to a hypothetical scenario of no historical vaccination. These modelled outcomes were then used to estimate the contribution of vaccination to globally declining infant and child mortality rates over this period.

Since 1974, vaccination has averted 154 million deaths, including 146 million among children younger than 5 years of whom 101 million were infants younger than 1 year. For every death averted, 66 years of full health were gained on average, translating to 10·2 billion years of full health gained. Vaccination has thus accounted for 40% of the observed decline in global infant mortality, 52% in the African region. In 2024, a child younger than 10 years is 40% more likely to survive to their next birthday relative to a hypothetical scenario of no historical vaccination. Increased survival probability is observed even well into late adulthood.

The authors concluded that since 1974 substantial gains in childhood survival have occurred in every global region. We estimate that EPI has provided the single greatest contribution to improved infant survival over the past 50 years. In the context of strengthening primary health care, our results show that equitable universal access to immunisation remains crucial to sustain health gains and continue to save future lives from preventable infectious mortality.

>So, will this excellent and compelling analysis concince many irrational anti-vaxers? Somehow, I have my doubts.

17 Responses to The contribution of 50 years of vaccination: 10·2 billion years of full health gained

  • I’d be interested to see a similar analysis for different types of SCAM.

    My prediction:
    Homeopathy: zero impact
    Chiropractic: zero impact
    Acupuncture: zero impact
    TCM: zero impact
    Ayurveda: negative impact(*)
    Naturopathy: near zero impact(**)
    ‘Energy’ medicine: zero impact
    etc. etc.

    *: Ayurvedic ‘medicines’ often contain heavy metals and are de facto poisons; especially lead is extremely detrimental to children’s development.

    **: Some herbal treatments work, and some naturopaths also dispense science-based treatments.

    Note that I’m being rather generous here, as most SCAM modalities in fact have a very clear, proven negative impact on health when administered in lieu of regular medical treatment (including vaccination).

  • There’s that word again: “modelling” == wish fulfillment.

    This is not some nostalgic, anniversary trip down memory lane, it is panic reaction to the public reaction to vaccines generally due to the covid debacle e.g. the SV40 promoter and mutagenesis:

    • thanks for confirming your ignorance and inability to change it.

    • @Old Bob
      Compared to you, the average brick is a marvel of cognitive sophistication.

      • Read your own link, it confirms the presence of SV40 promoter (that Pfizer hid from the regulator, see here):

        (NB the mechanism to integrate the SV40 promoter into the nucleus).

        First we were told that the jab “remained at the injection site” which is a lie and…

        Second we were told that the cell’s nucleus would never be altered which is a lie.

        • “ He noted the potential “DNA plasmid and SV40 integration in promoting cancer development.”

          These concerns remain hypothetical and have yet to be proven in scientific research and case studies.”

          Bob. We know you’re an idiot but it always pays to try and read and understand the articles you link to.

          • The Authorities are supposed to prove the jabs harmless *before* they are injected into billions of folks, not tell us to prove that they are harmless afterwards, that’s their job that they are paid millions of our money to do, not to hide it from the regulators!!!

          • The job of the authorities is to show that any risk posed by the vaccines is less than the risk posed by the disease they are designed to work against.

            And this was done, Bob. Monitoring continued. The AZ jab, whilst effective, was shown to carry more risks than the others available. So it was withdrawn. Flail and yammer all you like but the jabs worked. And you know it, And you hate it because it shows what idiots you and your fellow loons are. So to try and prop up your deficient egos you make shit up. We show the shit to be lies. So you do it again. And again.

            It’s laughable.

          • @Old Babbling Bob

            Your brain is a black hole. It swallows information and destroys them completely. You can recognize it in EVERY one of your answers.

          • Tell that to Chris Cuomo, former covid-jab champion:

            [quote, forty seconds in]
            …they have unintended consequences, AKA, side effects but nobody’s really talking about it because they are too afraid of blame…”
            [end of quote]

          • By the way, how many times are you going to link Vigilant News? But I am happy to copy once again what to make of this media garbage can.

            Questionable Reasoning: Propaganda, Conspiracy, Pseudoscience, Poor Sourcing, False Claims, Lack of Transparency
            Bias Rating: EXTREME RIGHT
            Factual Reporting: LOW
            Country: USA
            MBFC’s Country Freedom Rating: MOSTLY FREE
            Media Type: Website
            Traffic/Popularity: Medium Traffic
            MBFC Credibility Rating: LOW CREDIBILITY


          • That info comes from Twitter:

            What does your “fact checker” make of that?

          • it does not come from Twitter
            1) twitter is called X since quite a while
            2) it also does not come from X
            3) you GOT IT via X
            4) it actually comes from ‘NWES NATION’

          • So, what does your “fact checker” make of ‘NWES MATION’ ?

          • @Old Babbling Bob

            To put your conspiracy rants in perspective, I link another source here. Don’t you find it amazing that even the right-wing tabloid Daily Mail does not confirm any of your “sensational” revelations, but reports relatively neutrally on Post Covid/Long Covid patients and suspected vaccine damage?


            Unlike several countries like Australia, Canada, and Denmark, which have centralized health records compiled on a single database, the US has no such thing, leaving scientists to sift through reports of mild to severe side effects, of which there are more than four million lodged to the CDC’s voluntary adverse reporting website.
            Covid vaccines from Pfizer and BioNTech as well as Johnson and Johnson – which is no longer available – have been credited with averted at least three million deaths in the US and around 20 million globally due to the virus.

            But even the best vaccines are not perfect, and when given to more than 270 million Americans in nearly 677 million doses, adverse reactions are bound to crop up.

            Scientists fear the minority of vaccine recipients who have experienced severe reactions that have upended their lives are being ignored by federal officials with the power to initiate and fund more research into the matter.

            The problem in the USA, which Chris Cuomo describes, is not due to the allegedly harmful vaccine, but to inadequate regulations and a neglected official infrastructure for registering and evaluating potential vaccine damage.

          • That link would also be my choice: it’s current (today, 8th May) and here’s the opening headline and paragraphs:

            Neuroscientist, 37, and nurse, 54, claim they were left brain damaged and paralyzed from Covid vaccines – as they say they’ve been ‘dismissed and gaslighted’ as anti-vaxxers

            Americans who claim they were badly injured by the Covid vaccines feel they are being ignored and gaslighted by the government.

            Over 13,000 formal complaints about adverse reactions to the shots have been filed since 2021 – but only 19 percent have been reviewed.

            And just 12 patients have been compensated at an average of about $3,600, a figure which some have called insultingly low given the debilitating health issues they have been left with.

            Experts say that researchers who’ve tried to investigate the little-understood side effect profile of Covid vaccines have been blocked by government officials and scientists who fear that even entertaining the possibility that vaccines can cause harm would fuel the anti-vax, which become bigger and louder during the pandemic.

            Still, people are suffering from a range of conditions that came on soon after getting their first shot, including brain damage, tinnitus, neurological syndromes, facial paralysis, heart trouble, and shingles.
            [end of quote]

        • What makes you think that a company that recycles waste has the slightest idea about biochemistry and pharmaceutical research, development and production processes? Why does this company publish information about corona vaccines, a topic that is absolutely not part of its expertise?

          However, I assume that in the event of a house fire, you would call a gardening company instead of the fire department. After all, the latter also have water hoses.

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