MD, PhD, MAE, FMedSci, FRSB, FRCP, FRCPEd.

The origin of coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) has been the subject of intense speculation and several conspiracy theories, not least amongst the enthusiasts of so-called alternative medicine. Now Australian scientists have attempted to identify the origin of the coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2). As this is undoubtedly a most sensitive subject, let me show you the unadulterated abstract of their paper:

The origin of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) is contentious. Most studies have focused on a zoonotic origin, but definitive evidence such as an intermediary animal host is lacking. We used an established risk analysis tool for differentiating natural and unnatural epidemics, the modified Grunow–Finke assessment tool (mGFT) to study the origin of SARS-COV-2. The mGFT scores 11 criteria to provide a likelihood of natural or unnatural origin. Using published literature and publicly available sources of information, we applied the mGFT to the origin of SARS-CoV-2. The mGFT scored 41/60 points (68%), with high inter-rater reliability (100%), indicating a greater likelihood of an unnatural than natural origin of SARS-CoV-2. This risk assessment cannot prove the origin of SARS-CoV-2 but shows that the possibility of a laboratory origin cannot be easily dismissed.

The somewhat clumsy wording harbours explosive potential. It is more likely that the pandemic was started by a laboratory accident than by a zoonosis. In this case, it would be man-made rather than natural. The authors of the paper do, however, caution that their analysis does not prove the origin of the coronavirus. They merely speak of likelihoods. Moreover, it seems important to stress that there is no scientific evidence that Sars-CoV-2 was deliberately developed as a biological warfare agent.

Will this paper put an end to speculation and conspiracy?

I doubt it!

 

 

 

49 Responses to The origin of coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2): a laboratory accident?

  • “You know, the most amazing thing happened to me tonight. I was coming here, on the way to the lecture, and I came in through the parking lot. And you won’t believe what happened. I saw a car with the license plate ARW 357. Can you imagine? Of all the millions of license plates in the state, what was the chance that I would see that particular one tonight? Amazing!”

    Richard Feynman, on the pitfalls of using statistics for explaining post-hoc phenomena

  • It is the cover-up and censorship that is the most telling as well as the preparation for it in Event 201 – but these are all conspiracy theories right?

    It started with politicians and the MSM’s “safe and effective” in contrast to the industry standard of “vaccines are unavoidably unsafe” – and never changed since, despite reality.

    Likewise the hasty Fauci/Anderson/etc paper stating that it was not made in the lab after their panic-emails saying the opposite.

    The worse crime was advocating it for pregnant women when pregnant women were (as is the standard) excluded from the trials.

    • @Old Bob
      1. The topic of this thread is the origins of the SARS-CoV-2 virus, not vaccines.
      2. No, what you’re blabbing about is not a conspiracy theory, as ‘theory’ is too exalted a term to describe the deranged mental process going on there. It is conspiracy stupidity, conspiracy nonsense, conspiracy crap etc.
      3. The term “unavoidably unsafe” is a legal term to describe that a certain product may have side effects that can’t be eliminated without making the product useless. Contrary to what you and others claim (see previous point), it does NOT mean that something is ‘unsafe’ in our everyday meaning of the word.

      Getting vaccinated is absolutely one of the safest things you can do in this world, much safer for instance than drinking a glass of water or going shopping. It is in fact the opposite of ‘unsafe’, as getting vaccinated protects the vaccine recipient from the very unsafe consequences of contracting an infectious disease.

      • Richard Rasker on Saturday 16 March 2024 at 11:02 said:
        “1. The topic of this thread is the origins of the SARS-CoV-2 virus, not vaccines…”

        The whole point of Gain-of-function research is to try to create what might happen in the future so that a vaccine can be made against it in advance.

        The reason that covid-vaccines appeared so quickly for SARS-Cov-2 is because the *same* technology created both.

      • I stay indoors all the time because of FUD surrounding airplanes transporting anvils. There is a non-zero chance an airplane carrying anvils blows up midair above my house raining anvils, one of which could fall on my head as I step outside. Therefore it is unsafe for me to leave the house. I made my decision to stay indoors and be safe. I will leave this UNSAFE anvil raining world to the rest of you. Good luck!

        • @Talker
          Hate to tell you, but the average American house does not protect you from falling anvils.

          What you need is the homeopathic remedy Ferrum 30C, succussed really hard. For falling pianos you will of course need another remedy: alternating Eburneus and Hebenum 200C.

          • I think that the Ferrum 30c remedy to protect against falling anvils could be refined.
            Cast steel contains a not insignificant amount of Carbon at around 1%. Not a homeopathic amount. Therefore you need a combination remedy of Ferrum met 30c and Carbo veg 30c. Please though do not market this remedy in the UK as you would need to authorise it first under the MHRA NR scheme. Good luck with this.

          • @Richard

            Aaarrrgghh…I must go back to my drawing board because of your annoying logic. I don’t believe in homeopathy therefore I must build a bunker under my house to protect myself from falling anvils, no matter how infinitesimally small the chance of that happening might be.

            Unlike you, I don’t believe in logic. FUD is what I rely on, and it rules my life. Now, if you will excuse me, I must go build my bunker. I got news that wile e coyote is planning to jerry-rig a plane full of anvils with explosives.

        • You should get out more.

          I do the opposite. Get out all the time, avoid vaccination and despite MSM’s FUD, I stay healthy. It’s a mystery… no sunscreen and plenty of outdoor activity… weird or what?

          • No thanks. I don’t listen to your and Conspiracy Propagating Media’s (CPM) FUD.

            I stay indoors and vaccinated. I have never been healthier. I became better at detecting bullshit after I got vaccinated. I suppose one can say I acquired a super-power after I got vaccinated. I know, it all sounds counter-intuitive to pro-disease anti-vaxxers likes you, but it works great for me, therefore you should do the same.

          • Good for you that you have not contracted Corona yet.

            Have you ever considered that the virus has not disappeared from the world, but continues to spread and mutate? Have you also considered that without infection and vaccination, you have no immune protection whatsoever, so that the probability of a serious illness in the event of infection is much higher for you than for someone who has the corresponding antibodies and memory cells circulating in their blood?

            If stupidity hurt, you would be screaming all day.

          • Talker doesn’t realise that vaccines are not a zero risk. Nothing can be zero risk. So no vaccines, food or water in the bunker. It might be a good time to build a bunker though.

          • @JK

            I have been vaccinated five times and I have experienced zero side effects. Therefore I consider vaccines to be zero risk. It is that simple.

      • @Richard Rasker

        Wrong Richard, if a product is not safe, it does not get an approvable letter from the FDA. Ohhh, except in this situation, they awarded the vaccines with EUA status. How great is that ? So the big pharma corps get to have the taxpayers fund the research, gain billions of dollars of guaranteed sales without promotions, and then are off the hook for liabilities. How great is that ?

        PUKE !

        • @”John”
          Apart from you puking off-topic (the topic here is the origin of the COVID virus), I do agree that those COVID vaccines were a great development!
          We were confronted with a new, deadly disease that killed 1 in every 100 people and caused long-term (and possibly permanent) damage in at least 10 times as many. Just one year later, we had extremely safe vaccines that were 95% effective in preventing these horrible outcomes. Hurrah for vaccines, hurrah for science! And I tip my hat to those pharmaceutical companies that managed to churn out billions of vaccine doses within mere months, all without concessions to safety and efficacy. So what if they made a few bucks(*)? Should they have given away those vaccines for free?

          *: As in $20 – $35 per dose, IIRC. Even one hour of sick leave (e.g. as a result of a COVID infection) is more costly for the average worker.

          • @Richard Rasker

            Sir, if the official statistic is one percent death rate, that rate was heavily influenced by the elderly with co-morbidities. I find the number inflated due to attributing every form of death under the sun to the virus. However, since we know the elderly were more at risk. When or where have we ever denied ill patients care (entry to hospitals) until they were on their death bed and beyond the point of first line treatment.
            The SYSTEM killed many more than needed. They continued intubating patients even without success. Much of the blame for the deaths of the pandemic should be laid at the feet of those who governed the response. Not those that refused the jabs.

            https://www.nbcnewyork.com/news/coronavirus/9000-covid-patients-were-sent-from-ny-hospitals-into-nursing-homes-records-show/2884682/

          • @”John”
            Blah blah blah … all long-debunked ‘arguments’ and nonsense from antivaxxers.

            YOU are among those most responsible for the needlessly high death toll because YOU kept telling people the very same lies that you keep on repeating here.

            So if you are looking for reasons why many people died needlessly – also young and perfectly healthy people, up to and including children – don’t go blaming doctors and scientists.
            Just find a mirror.

  • Here’s the conclusion:

    In conclusion, an unnatural origin of SARS-COV-2 is plausible, and our application of the mGFT suggests it is equally or more probable than a natural origin, although both remain possible.

    Here’s the conclusion of a previous paper by the same authors:

    Using an accepted tool, the GFT, and the mGFT which was modified for improved sensitivity, the MERS-CoV outbreak in Saudi Arabia scored in the range of high likelihood of an unnatural origin.

    X. Chen, A.A. Chughtai, R. Macintyre,
    Use of a modified Grunow-Finke tool to assess the origin of MERS-CoV in Saudi Arabia,
    International Journal of Infectious Diseases 101(S1) (2021) 219–264
    DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijid.2020.11.098

    • Here’s a patent filed 2007, granted 2009 for said furin-cleavage-site technology:
      https://patents.justia.com/patent/7521209

      You only need to type
      “patent for the furin insert”
      Into Bing, to get the above link on the first page.

      • @Old Bob

        Googling a few words doesn’t prove anything, Sherlock! There are a couple of pages of text listed on that patent page. Now explain in your own words what all that means and how it relates to the topic being discussed on this blog post.

        • Talker on Saturday 16 March 2024 at 17:26 said
          “Googling a few words doesn’t prove anything,..”

          It shows that the “Probable human origin of the SARS-CoV-2 polybasic furin cleavage motif”:
          https://bmcgenomdata.biomedcentral.com/articles/10.1186/s12863-023-01169-8#Fig5

          Is not just of “probable human origin” but the subject of patents long *before* the plandemic and that the principle targets are the testis, ovaries and brain. In other words, the covid-vaccine was known to target these organs above others.

          • @Old Bob
            You really have no idea what you’re saying, now do you? Also see below.

          • @Old Bob

            You failed to answer the question. What exactly is being patented? How does it relate to the current topic? In your own words please.

          • Talker on Monday 18 March 2024 at 12:55 said:
            “You failed to answer the question. What exactly is being patented? How does it relate to the current topic? In your own words please.”

            You failed to read the answers/and/or to understand them.

          • You failed to read the answers/and/or to understand them.

            For you typing something into your browser goes for a response. Whether that is comprehensible or not to other people is an afterthought for you it seems.

          • Thanks for that URL, Old Bob.

            I’d be most interested in your analysis of the following paper, which is relevant, fascinating and detailed:

            Cheng MH, Porritt RA, Rivas MN, Krieger JM, Ozdemir AB, Garcia G Jr, Arumugaswami V, Fries BC, Arditi M, Bahar I.
            A monoclonal antibody against staphylococcal enterotoxin B superantigen inhibits SARS-CoV-2 entry in vitro.
            Structure. 2021 Sep 2;29(9):951-962.e3.
            doi:10.1016/j.str.2021.04.005. Epub 2021 Apr 29.
            PMID: 33930306;
            PMCID: PMC8082696.
            https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC8082696/

          • Talker on Monday 18 March 2024 at 17:32 said:
            “…For you typing something into your browser goes for a response. Whether that is comprehensible or not to other people is an afterthought for you it seems.”

            Well said.

            It’s not possible to be “…comprehensible or not to other people…” unless one is some sort of omniscient being who knows the minds of the “other people” – so I try, but I don’t lose sleep over it.

          • OB says:

            It’s not possible to be “…comprehensible or not to other people…” unless one is some sort of omniscient being who knows the minds of the “other people” – so I try, but I don’t lose sleep over it.

            Thanks for providing evidence to support my earlier comment: “For you, typing something into your browser goes for a response”

            If you want to improve your chances of getting your point across, you must present your argument in a way other people can comprehend. Before you can do that, you must first understand the topic yourself. It appears you failed miserably at both tasks.

          • Pete Attkins on Monday 18 March 2024 at 21:10 said:
            “…I’d be most interested in your analysis of the following paper… A monoclonal antibody against staphylococcal enterotoxin B superantigen inhibits SARS-CoV-2 entry in vitro….
            https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC8082696/

            Nice try, a deflection? 🙂

            I prefer to stay with the CGG doublets in the PRRA inserts that give the game away. I don’t think there is anything difficult to understand here, even for a tyro like me:

            Each amino acid (e.g. the ‘R’ (arginine)) is coded by a codon (CGG is one of several different codons that give the same amino acid, arginine in this case, I think there are six for arginine IIRC and CGG is the rarest, hence that is the one chosen for lab work so that it stands out as man-made to be easier to trace its passage through thousands of animal-passages. That is the first, blindingly-obvious-clue.

            The second is that mutations tend to happen (if they survive at all), one nucleotide at a time (e.g. the ‘C’ or the ‘G’ of CGG), not twelve-at-a-time, and not twelve-that-are-consecutive (that survive) in one mighty-multiple-mutation (unless there is a “sideways” block-transference (lateral gene transfer) from an already existing, successful “species” of RNA from another virus that has already adapted, long ago, from the need to be cleaved by furin, to survive)

            That should be enough to convince anyone.

            If that is not enough, then there are the patents that have been filed for this one, particular furin-cleavage-site insert, after millions of dollars research of gain-of-function, years before the lab-escape (if it was released deliberately, the host country would surely have developed and tested the vaccine first!)(also lab-escapes are common, starting with smallpox way back).

            If that is not enough, we have the email exchange between Fauci and Co. to produce a paper denying a lab-leak and expressly saying that the virus was natural, without evidence. How do they know? They don’t. Even the CIA admitted it was likely a lab leak over a year ago (to avoid the egg-on-the-face problem).

            If that was not enough, suppose sideways-block-transfer is responsible i.e. some mammalian species (I am guessing) has furin sites (only humans do?) and a suitable virus adapted long enough to gain some survival advantage from them with a furin-cleavage-site of its own, then there would be a history of widespread ancestral variations each with a reason-to-be, but none have been found. This thing just appeared out of thin air. Ready made, as an immaculate conception!!!

          • Old Bob wrote: “Nice try, a deflection? 🙂”

            Clearly, Old Bob didn’t bother to actually read and understand the content of both papers. Here’s just a small selection of technical terms used in both papers (mentions in Bob’s reference followed by mentions in my reference):
            ACE2  3 16
            furin   42 55
            PRRA 45 25
            S1/S2  6 38

            Old Bob wrote: “mutations tend to happen (if they survive at all), one nucleotide at a time (e.g. the ‘C’ or the ‘G’ of CGG), not twelve-at-a-time…”.

            Thank you for exemplifying your abject failure to understand things from first principles. Your statement is a profound example of ontological confusion.

          • You try to deflect the discussion from gain-of-function-experimental-gene-therapy to monoclonal antibodies to bury the former under the latter.

          • You try to deflect the discussion from gain-of-function-experimental-gene-therapy to monoclonal antibodies to bury the former under the latter.

            @OB

            The paper Pete referred to is fascinating and it is indeed related to the topic. That fact that you do not understand that tells us that you do not know what the *bleep* you are talking about.

            Here is a hint: It’s the evolution STUPID!

          • Stop lying, Old Bob.

            I started this thread on Saturday 16 March 2024 at 13:33.

            You changed the subject.

          • Pete Attkins on Tuesday 19 March 2024 at 20:12 said:
            “Stop lying, Old Bob.
            I started this thread on Saturday 16 March 2024 at 13:33.
            You changed the subject.”

            What, from this, you mean?:
            “The origin of coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2): a laboratory accident?”

          • @Antediluvian Robert

            You are a monkey with a typewriter. In a few million years you will have typed out a sensible, comprehensible text. 😀

      • The patent proves what, Old Bob? Just that you are once again chasing delusions and conspiracy theories.

        • Why does what I think worry you? If you are so sure, then you have nothing to worry about, and no reason to react.

          • perhaps because you do not just think nonsense, you also promote it!

          • Anyone advocating nonsense only betray themselves: there is only risk without gain – they are their own enemy.

          • @Old Bob
            Then why do you keep doing it? Don’t get me wrong, it is somewhat amusing to see you parroting things that you very obviously don’t understand at all yourself, but after a while it becomes rather tedious and even embarrassing – it’s a bit like a grown-up producing childish stick figure drawings and then expecting praise and recognition for their ‘art’ from actual, accomplished artists.

          • Your own words expose yourself.

          • Saying something nonsensical always works when one loses an argument and/or doesn’t have anything else to contribute to the discussion.

          • OB lectures about keeping things impersonal:

            That is why it’s best to avoid opining i.e. try to keep it impersonal, to avoid diluting one’s message-content with irrelevant personal stuff.

            Earlier, OB referring to Richard’s post said:

            Your own words expose yourself.

            LOL!

          • Talker on Monday 18 March 2024 at 13:46 said:
            “Saying something nonsensical always works when one loses an argument and/or doesn’t have anything else to contribute to the discussion.”

            It’s simple: what we say, can says more about us than the literal-message-itself. That is why it’s best to avoid opining i.e. try to keep it impersonal, to avoid diluting one’s message-content with irrelevant personal stuff.

          • Talker on Monday 18 March 2024 at 17:27 said:
            “…OB… said:
            Your own words expose yourself.
            LOL!”

            This is always true of all words by anyone. The tone, how opinionated (or not), everything tells more about the speaker than the content… What! There is only precise, objective, accuracy? That too is just as telling.

          • I am not interested in your philosophical ramblings, OB. I doubt most people here are either.

          • pseudo-philosophical, please!

      • Historical Patents – Weird and Wonderful
        World Intellectual Property Organization (WIPO)

        Series 1
        https://www.wipo.int/patents/en/historical_patents.html

        2018 Patent Picks – Weird and Wonderful
        https://www.wipo.int/patents/en/2018_patent_picks.html

        2019 Patent Picks – Weird and Wonderful
        https://www.wipo.int/patents/en/2019_patent_picks.html

        2020 Patent Picks – Weird and Wonderful
        https://www.wipo.int/patents/en/2020_patent_picks.html

        2021 Patent Picks – Weird and Wonderful
        https://www.wipo.int/patents/en/2021_patent_picks.html

        2022 Patent Picks – Weird and Wonderful
        https://www.wipo.int/patents/en/2022_patent_picks.html

        2023 Patent Picks – Weird and Wonderful
        https://www.wipo.int/patents/en/2023-patent-picks.html

        • Magificent!
          From eye protectors for chickens to the final, terminal, bat-man flying suit, no one can look at these and maintain a stiff upper lip.
          Humanity is wonderful.

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