The announcement was made during the German sceptics conference ‘Skepkon‘ in Koeln. As I could not be present, I obtained the photo via Twitter.
So, if you are a homeopath or a fan of homeopathy, all you have to do – as the above slide says – is to reproducibly identify homeopathic remedies in high potency. The procedure for obtaining the money has to follow three pre-defined steps:
- Identification of three homeopathic preparations in high potency according to a proscribed protocol.
- Documentation of a method enabling a third party to identify the remedies.
- Verification of the experiment by repeating it.
Anyone interested must adhere to the full instructions published by the German sceptics GWUP:
1. Review of test protocol
Together with a representative of GWUP, the applicants review and agree on this protocol prior to the start of the test. Minor changes may be applied if justified, provided they are mutually agreed to in advance and do not affect the validity of the test, especially the blinding and randomization of the samples. In any case we want to avoid that the results get compromised or their credibility impeached by modifications of the protocol while the test is already under way. After mutual confirmation, the test protocol is binding for the whole duration of the test and its evaluation.
2. Selection of drugs
The applicant proposes which three drugs should be used in the trial. This gives them the opportunity to select substances that they think they could distinguish particularly well as homeopathic remedies. The potency may be selected freely as well, whereby the following conditions must be observed:
– all drugs must be available as sugar globules of the same grade (“Globuli” in German);
– the same potency, namely D- or C-potency above D24 / C12, is used for all three drugs;
– all drugs can be procured from the same producer.
3. Procurement of samples
The samples will be purchased by GWUP and shipped from the vendor directly to the notary who will perform the randomization. GWUP will purchase sufficient numbers of packages to complete the series of 12 samples according to the randomization list. The procurement will ensure that the samples derive from different batches of production as follows.
3.1. Common remedies
Common remedies, i.e. remedies sold in high numbers, will be procured from randomly selected pharmacies from the biggest cities in Germany (Berlin, Hamburg, Munich, Cologne, Frankfurt, Stuttgart…). Each pharmacy supplies a bottle for each of the three selected remedies and ships it directly to the notary in charge of randomization. If the applicants need a sample of known content for calibration, then this will be procured from yet another pharmacy in another German city.
3.2. Special remedies
If due to low sales it is possible that the above procedure is not sufficient to have all samples from different batches, a randomly selected pharmacy will be appointed to produce all the samples from raw materials purchased from the producer. GWUP will procure the mother tinctures, the raw sugar pills, and bottles and packages, to be shipped directly to the respective pharmacy who then will do the potentization, label the bottles and send them to the notary. If there are extra samples of known content required for calibration, then an extra set of samples will be produced. One set of samples will be kept in a sealed package for future reference.
The applicant and GWUP mutually agree on which procedure is used before the start of procurement. If more than 10 grams of globules per sample are required for the procedure used for inentification, the applicant has to indicate this in advance, and GWUP will take this into account.
4. Randomization / blinding
The randomization and blinding is done by a sworn-in public notary in Würzburg, Germany, who is selected by a random procedure. Würzburg is chosen because the first part of the task is to be evaluated at the University of Würzburg, for all participants based in Europe. For overseas applicants, the location will be mutually agreed on.
The notary receives a coding list showing how the three drugs A, B and C are to be distributed among the twelve samples. This list is compiled by the GWUP representative by throwing dice. The notary also determines which drug is assigned to which letter by throwing dice. Note that the drugs may not be present in the set in equal numbers.
The notary completely removes the original label from the bottle and replaces it with the number without opening the bottle. The randomization protocol is deposited in a sealed envelope with the notary public without a copy being made beforehand. The notary disposes of surplus packs. If special remedies are processed, one set of marked samples is sealed and forwarded to GWUP for later reference in a sealed package.
The coded bottles are sent from the notary to the applicant without individual packaging and documentation. The applicant confirms receipt of the samples.
The applicant identifies which of the 12 bottles contains which drug, using any method and procedure of his choice. There is no limit as to the method used for identification, and this well may be a procedure not currently recognized by modern science. However, GWUP at the start requires a short and rough outline of how the applicant wants to proceed, and GWUP reserves the right to reject applications whose sincerity for scientific work seems questionable.
The applicant is also required to specify a period of time within which they will be able to produce their results. This period may not exceed six months. If it expires without the applicant being able to show their results, the outcome will be considered negative. However, the candidate may apply for an extension in good time before the deadline, if they can provide a reasonable explanation and is not caused by the respective identification process as such.
The applicant is explicitly advised to observe ethics standards, and to procure the consent of an appropriate ethics committee if their method involves testing on humans or animals.
6. Result Pt. 1
If reasonable, the applicant may present their findings as part of the PSI-Tests held annually by GWUP at the University of Würzburg. The applicant’s result will be compared to the coding protocol from the notary. The number of bottles in which the notary’s record corresponds to the applicant’s details is determined. The result includes a description of the method used, if possible with meaningful intermediate data such as measurement protocols or symptom lists of drug provings.
The first part of the test is considered a success if the content of no more than one bottle is identified incorrectly and a description of the procedure is produced.
7. Result Pt. 2 and 3: Replication and Verification
Replication of the test is to ensure that a successful first result was not caused by chance alone. In addition, the procedure explained by the applicant is to be verified in a way depending on its nature. The objective is to verify that the identification was indeed performed by using this very method, and that the description is complete and suitable for a third party to achieve the same outcome.
For replication, steps 2 to 5 will be repeated. Applicants may select to use the same drugs as before. In this case they will then procured from another manufacturer or prepared by a different pharmacy with raw material from a different supplier. Alternatively, the candidate may indicate three new drugs which then can be obtained from the original vendor.
For a successful replication the same precision as before is required, that is, that only one out of 12 bottles may be identified incorrectly.
The evaluation and presentation of these results may take place at any location, press or other media may be invited to the event as agreed to by the applicant and GWUP.
Is anyone going to take up this challenge?
Personally, I don’t hold my breath.
Many years ago (at a time when homeopaths still saw me as one of their own), I had plans to do a similar but slightly less rigorous test as part of a doctoral thesis for one of my students.
Our investigation was straight forward: we approached several of the world’s leading/most famous homeopaths and asked them to participate. Their task was to tell us which homeopathic remedy they thought was easiest to differentiate from a placebo. Subsequently we would post them several vials – I think the number was 10 – and ask them to tell us which contained the remedy of their choice (in a C30 potency), and which the placebo (the distribution was 50:50, and the authenticity of each vial was to be confirmed by a notary). The experimental method for identifying which was which was entirely left to each participating homeopath; they were even allowed to use multiple, different tests. Based on the results, we would then calculate whether their identification skills were better than pure chance.
Sadly, the trial never happened. Initially, we had a positive response from some homeopaths who were interested in participating. However, when they then saw the exact protocol, they all pulled out.
But times may have changed; perhaps today there are some homeopaths out there who actually believe in homeopathy?
Perhaps our strategy to work only with ‘the best’ homeopaths was wrong?
Perhaps there are some homeopaths who are less risk-adverse?
I sure hope that lots of enthusiastic homeopaths will take up this challenge.
GOOD LUCK! And watch this space.